Saturday, February 25, 2006

Civil Strife

I believe the people in Iraq are much more interested in three meals a day and a future for their children than they are in civil war. But certainly circumstances are inciting emotions on both sides and Iraqis might come to believe that the only way to have that future is to be in complete control of the country.

The Kurds are already pretty much in control of the northern areas, the only point of contention is whether they will share oil revenues.

The Kurds have numbers and a shared history of being domination.

But the Sunni's also have something that keeps them as major players in this game. They have the experience, being the historical administrators of the country.

Each major party has something that brings them to the table and slows the race to civil war.

The question is, will they also come to share another belief? That the United States must leave their country in order for them to attain their goals.

The one reason that the Iraqi's have "allowed" the US to stay is the belief that the United States military can provide security. That belief has got to be wavering in the minds of locals. And with that belief gone, the little support that the US military has gotten will vaporize.

The US can bribe and threaten an invitation from the Iraqi government to stay as long as they want. The US is building new bases and is planning a long presence in Iraq. But the Muslim religion is extremely disciplined and expects obedience to the death. With the populous turned against the continued occupation the current death rate would continue to rise.

With no ability to provide security and a people that had turned against us, what premium per gallon of oil would be paying to stay in the country?

If we left, allowed the Iraqis to work out differences themselves, wouldn't we in the long run come to the same outcome while saving many American lives?

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home